NASCAR at Phoenix odds, picks 2019: Model says Clint Bowyer surprises at TicketGuardian 500

The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Following an electric start to the season at Daytona and 2 fast 1.5-mile paths in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Monster Energy NASCAR cup series’ first race in the tighter quarters of the one-mile loop at ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the last five March races at this track and is the 9-4 favorite to collect another win in the latest 2019 TicketGuardian 500 odds. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin is becoming 16-1, while Kurt Busch reaches 30-1 NASCAR in Phoenix chances after a solid start to his season that has him eighth in the NASCAR standings. Prior to making your 2019 TicketGuardian 500 selections, be sure to check at the NASCAR in Phoenix projected leaderboard in the SportsLine Projection Model.

Developed by DFS pro and SportsLine predictive data scientist Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors like track record and current results into account.

It made some huge calls in NASCAR this past year, including properly projecting wins for Kyle Busch in Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. Plus it’s off to a strong start in NASCAR this season, calling Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin that a top-four competition and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers at last week’s Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its own projected top five. Anyone who has followed its picks is way up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big events in venues like ISM Raceway are in his bloodstream. His version has simulated Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For the 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we can inform you the version is high on Clint Bowyer, making a strong run at the checkered flag despite going off as a long shot 25-1 NASCAR odds. He’s a target for anybody looking for a payday.

Bowyer broke a five-season drought without a win last year and proceeded to catch a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the road to some 12th-place end in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he has added a top-five complete at Atlanta and has shown impressive speed occasionally. Bowyer has seven career top-10s in Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.

Bowyer, who drives for Stewart-Haas Racing, was second in among the year’s Daytona Duels and closed out last year’s NASCAR schedule with an eight-place ending at Homestead. He will also come equipped to the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 with a similar vehicle setup to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.

One of the shocking 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix picks from the model: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner at ISM Raceway and the top Vegas favourite, makes a solid run but falls short of winning it all.

Harvick has made a career out of getting to the front of the pack consistently at this particular track. In Reality, He’s finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway

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Author: pto