This weekend we have an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I really do like these early cards so that I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and go out and revel in the remainder of the afternoon once the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I think we should have a large edge this week if we place in the job. Most casual players will not be doing research on those names they’ve not heard and will only be throwing in lineups seeking to get lucky and hit a big score. I will personally be chasing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking numerous shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is an arduous card this Sunday and I believe we will see a good deal of people making mistakes in cash games. Any time I think I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a fight, I like to pile it into my money games and lock those points. I think this battle is going to be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I believe we can see numerous knockdowns as well which would help, but I think we readily get over 100+ points combined with these two men. Let us let everyone else make the errors and we can lock in a 100+ points and a win, then we just have to locate another 3 wins we’re convinced in.
GPP play of the week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think that this matchup was put up for Bermudez a win. He’s got quite a slick entry game and when this fight goes to the floor I think he can pick up advance points fast and find a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his profession and even when he’s winning the toes, he still shoots for takedowns each struggle. I think if Manny can not get the takedown himself, Grant will gradually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I believe we can see a 1st round submission here which should easily get that the 10x+ we are searching for at his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog play of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this fight he will easily pay off this price . He’s got 100-point upside and using a $7.5k salary that will certainly place him on the winning lineup if he can get there. Anthony Smith continues to be pumped more instances than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shogun can get a KO here against Smith, who’s taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down from the last few years but I believe he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory . I do need exposure to both men in GPPs, but I believe you need some exposure to Rua if you are making numerous lineups.
Fade of this week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my selections being correct and that I will hit the right combo. It’s hard to pick one favourite fade this week but I will pick Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I believe he’ll use takedowns to get the choice win here. Thus, you would think that seems great on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. But, he does not chain together takedowns and he ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He does not have much finishing ability and I don’t see him getting a submission. However, I think we will see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way into a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him previously. Hein has 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I’m not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That’s why he’s my fade of this week.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown using investigation on every struggle, my private strategies & recommendations, and also my pick forecast for every single fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:

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Author: pto